Would we be denied another bailout if we needed it?

On Tonight with Vincent Browne, Labour TD Dominic Hannigan, Independent MEP Marian Harkin, financial adviser Paul Sommerville and Zaki Laïdi, professor at Sciences Po will discuss the troika review, the Fiscal Treaty and the euro zone crisis. 

Below, Vincent blogs ahead of the show.

Yet another approval rating from our masters at the ECB, the European Commission and the IMF. Ireland is again the most obedient of the EU member states in difficulty. In that context, is it believable that even if we vote No to the Fiscal Treaty we would be denied another bailout if we needed it? All the more so since we would be unable to pay a debt burden of around €120 billion and a default of that scale would plunge the whole euro zone into a crisis with contagion leaking to Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and France.

If François Hollande is elected president of France on Sunday week, his demands for changes to the Fiscal Treaty may bring relief to Ireland anyway. For one thing it would open up the Fiscal Treaty again to negotiation and then, we would hope, the gun-to-head element would be removed and the fiscal rules would be relaxed. But is this fanciful?

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